The TPLF & The Controversy
The nation of Ethiopia is divided into 10 relatively autonomous regions. The region of Tigray is in the north and is governed by the TPLF, or Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Despite Tigrayans making up merely 6% of the national population, the TPLF has major political, economic, and military power in Ethiopia. In November of 2020, fighting broke out in the region between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF.
Leading the federal government is the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, an ambitious man named Abiy Ahmed. He is seen as a visionary who aims to transform Ethiopia into a more democratic nation. However, many of his actions have angered the TPLF. Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize after making peace with the bordering country of Eritrea, a nation with which the TPLF has enmity. Next, Ahmed sought to get rid of the autonomy of the 10 regions and unite the nation under a single Prosperity Party — the TPLF felt that this was a clear assault on their governing autonomy and instantly backed out of the plan. And most importantly, Ahmed removed members of the TPLF from top positions in the federal government, immediately creating more enemies for him.
The real fighting broke out in November 2020, a few months after the TPLF held their regional elections despite the government’s decision to postpone elections due to the pandemic. The federal government ruled the vote and the TPLF as unlawful and the TPLF claimed that they no longer recognized Addis Ababa as Prime Minister. The TPLF then proceeded to attack a government military base, prompting Ahmed to send troops to the region. The federal government has since cut funding and launched airstrikes to the region, which has only increased the TPLF’s anger.
The government issued a 72-hour deadline, after which they entered their final phase — capturing the Tigrayan regional capital of Mekelle. The military said that the area would be surrounded by tanks and has warned civilians to be aware and take shelter. Ahmed has said numerous times that innocent civilians will be taken care of. In an official statement, the PM stated that “The last peaceful gate which had remained open for the TPLF clique to walk through has now been firmly closed as a result of the TPLF’s contempt for the people of Ethiopia”.
Currently, over 42,000 refugees have fled into Sudan and the United Nations says that 6,000 are entering per day due to the deadly nature of this conflict. It is expected that there will be around 100,000 refugees by June of next year, eventually constituting a “humanitarian crisis” as defined by the UN. The conflict is also drawing in other nearby nations including Eritrea and Somalia, and there is concern that even more nations will be swept in. The government believes that the situation has reached “a point of no return,” and neither side is willing to give in.
Leading the federal government is the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, an ambitious man named Abiy Ahmed. He is seen as a visionary who aims to transform Ethiopia into a more democratic nation. However, many of his actions have angered the TPLF. Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize after making peace with the bordering country of Eritrea, a nation with which the TPLF has enmity. Next, Ahmed sought to get rid of the autonomy of the 10 regions and unite the nation under a single Prosperity Party — the TPLF felt that this was a clear assault on their governing autonomy and instantly backed out of the plan. And most importantly, Ahmed removed members of the TPLF from top positions in the federal government, immediately creating more enemies for him.
The real fighting broke out in November 2020, a few months after the TPLF held their regional elections despite the government’s decision to postpone elections due to the pandemic. The federal government ruled the vote and the TPLF as unlawful and the TPLF claimed that they no longer recognized Addis Ababa as Prime Minister. The TPLF then proceeded to attack a government military base, prompting Ahmed to send troops to the region. The federal government has since cut funding and launched airstrikes to the region, which has only increased the TPLF’s anger.
The government issued a 72-hour deadline, after which they entered their final phase — capturing the Tigrayan regional capital of Mekelle. The military said that the area would be surrounded by tanks and has warned civilians to be aware and take shelter. Ahmed has said numerous times that innocent civilians will be taken care of. In an official statement, the PM stated that “The last peaceful gate which had remained open for the TPLF clique to walk through has now been firmly closed as a result of the TPLF’s contempt for the people of Ethiopia”.
Currently, over 42,000 refugees have fled into Sudan and the United Nations says that 6,000 are entering per day due to the deadly nature of this conflict. It is expected that there will be around 100,000 refugees by June of next year, eventually constituting a “humanitarian crisis” as defined by the UN. The conflict is also drawing in other nearby nations including Eritrea and Somalia, and there is concern that even more nations will be swept in. The government believes that the situation has reached “a point of no return,” and neither side is willing to give in.
A Declaration of War
The federal government of Ethiopia has declared war on the semi-autonomous federal state of Tigray, which is home to around 6% of Ethiopia’s population. Tigrayans, primarily the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have long held a position of power and influence, controlling the government for over three decades. Their control dates back to 1975 when a war was launched against the Derg military government in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital. The military system was toppled in 1991, and the TPLF dominated the ruling alliance composed of four ethno-regional parties: The Oromo Peoples Democratic Organisation, the Amhara National Democratic Movement, the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement, and the TPLF. This domination of the political system came to a halt in 2018 when Prime Minister Ahmed, a member of the Oromo ethnic group, came to power.
Under Ahmed, Tigray’s leaders have expressed concerns of being unfairly targeted in investigations to expose corruption and removed from top positions — stemming from inherent bias as a product of the TPLF’s actions in the past. As such, they withdrew from the ruling coalition after Ahmed merged it into the nationwide Prosperity Party, marking the start of the most recent conflict.
Tigray held its own elections in September in direct violation of Ahmed’s government orders to postpone elections in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to these unlawful actions, Ahmed ceased to recognize Tigray under his administration and subsequently ceased funding to the region.
However, the TPLF viewed this action as a fabrication of a narrative by Ahmed, relating it to the biased actions that had occurred in the past. Its powerful military of an estimated 250,000 troops, indicates that war between the two nations is likely to be lengthy, and catastrophic, with concerns about neighbouring African countries getting involved. On November 4th, Prime Minister Ahmed accused the TPLF of attacking a government defense post, trying to steal artillery and military equipment as a mobilisation mechanism. The conflict escalated within a matter of days, following artillery strikes, shelling of the city Mekelle, and a number of casualties.
On the 28th of November, the Ethiopian government claimed that they had taken a victory in the conflict of Tigray. However, reporters have called into question the legitimacy of this statement as communications have been shut off. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael provided insight into the motives of this conflict in overthrowing Ahmed, affirming that they “are fighting in respect to our right to self-determination and self-rule. Abiy will not be able to arrest TPLF’s members, they will die with their self-belief.” Further emphasizing the sense of nationalism within the TPLF, this statement also highlights the willingness and determination presumably stemming from conceived actions of bias. Political analysts have warned that its military could still face a brutal civil guerilla war which could accelerate to be of a similar intensity as the 20-year long civil conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
According to The New York Times, the TPLF has said its forces had pre-emptively moved to take over strategic military assets after seeing federal army units move north. While it is clear that the TPLF stand strongly grounded in their actions and views and have reiterated that they are not likely to give up, concerns arise as to the number of resources available to support the conflict, which could provide a likely barrier.
All in all, the TPLF has acted in response to a presumed 2-year history of bias conducted by the Ethiopian federal government under Prime Minister Ahmed, and plans to continue fighting till their needs are met.
Under Ahmed, Tigray’s leaders have expressed concerns of being unfairly targeted in investigations to expose corruption and removed from top positions — stemming from inherent bias as a product of the TPLF’s actions in the past. As such, they withdrew from the ruling coalition after Ahmed merged it into the nationwide Prosperity Party, marking the start of the most recent conflict.
Tigray held its own elections in September in direct violation of Ahmed’s government orders to postpone elections in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to these unlawful actions, Ahmed ceased to recognize Tigray under his administration and subsequently ceased funding to the region.
However, the TPLF viewed this action as a fabrication of a narrative by Ahmed, relating it to the biased actions that had occurred in the past. Its powerful military of an estimated 250,000 troops, indicates that war between the two nations is likely to be lengthy, and catastrophic, with concerns about neighbouring African countries getting involved. On November 4th, Prime Minister Ahmed accused the TPLF of attacking a government defense post, trying to steal artillery and military equipment as a mobilisation mechanism. The conflict escalated within a matter of days, following artillery strikes, shelling of the city Mekelle, and a number of casualties.
On the 28th of November, the Ethiopian government claimed that they had taken a victory in the conflict of Tigray. However, reporters have called into question the legitimacy of this statement as communications have been shut off. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael provided insight into the motives of this conflict in overthrowing Ahmed, affirming that they “are fighting in respect to our right to self-determination and self-rule. Abiy will not be able to arrest TPLF’s members, they will die with their self-belief.” Further emphasizing the sense of nationalism within the TPLF, this statement also highlights the willingness and determination presumably stemming from conceived actions of bias. Political analysts have warned that its military could still face a brutal civil guerilla war which could accelerate to be of a similar intensity as the 20-year long civil conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
According to The New York Times, the TPLF has said its forces had pre-emptively moved to take over strategic military assets after seeing federal army units move north. While it is clear that the TPLF stand strongly grounded in their actions and views and have reiterated that they are not likely to give up, concerns arise as to the number of resources available to support the conflict, which could provide a likely barrier.
All in all, the TPLF has acted in response to a presumed 2-year history of bias conducted by the Ethiopian federal government under Prime Minister Ahmed, and plans to continue fighting till their needs are met.
