Nicaragua: Unrest and Uncertainty amidst Potential Intervention
By Sharanya Swaminathan & Neha Nouman, 7/19/2021
Rising Tensions
After enduring long periods of political turmoil, dictatorship, and occupation since it became independent in 1821, Nicaragua, one of the largest countries in Central America, is once again facing a political crisis. The country faces the loss of democracy and the introduction of a one-state party system, which threatens to establish a dictatorship, leading to international concerns about the maintenance of human rights.. Although protests in Nicaragua have heightened dramatically in the past three years, these problems have been gradually developing since the oppressive regime of President Daniel Ortega began in 2007. A country rich in its diversity of people, food, and geography, Nicaragua has sadly become an epicenter of violence.
In order to better understand the current state of the nation, it is imperative to delve into President Ortega and his background. After being exiled to Cuba in 1974, Ortega was initially shown guerilla warfare under Fidel Castro’s Marxist-Leninist government. Arguably, this transformed many of his ideologies and sparked revolutionary groups whose clashes culminated in the Nicaraguan Revolution. In 1984, Ortega won the presidential election on a platform supporting mandates on issues such as: land reform, nationalization, and wealth redistribution, after being the leader in the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN). However, his presidency was overshadowed by economic and diplomatic struggles as well as largely sour relations with the United States. Following this, Ortega lost the subsequent election in 1990. Remaining fairly popular in Nicaragua, Ortega won the 2006 election and started to lead a very antidemocratic campaign. This lost him many previous allies and a cycle of violence began to upend itself. And according to political analyst Eliseo Nunez, “Nicaragua is very close to becoming a dictatorship.”
Tensions further escalated in June 2013, when a group of elderly citizens demanded a reduced pension from the Nicaraguan Social Security Institute because they were contributing smaller amounts. As the community rallied in peaceful protests, they were met with unwarranted violence and attacked by a paramilitary group. President Ortega soon supplied concessions to appease the violence. However, the following year, a Chinese funded canal was planned to be constructed through Nicaragua that would disrupt the environment and indigenous rights. This ignited protests once again.
Although there was a gradual development of discontent with governmental actions, the social security reforms in 2018 quickly escalated the troubles. The Nicaraguan Social Security Institute went into a severe deficit in 2013, but no reforms were established to rectify this issue. The International Monetary Fund alerted the Nicaraguan government that this would not be sustainable and that cash reserves would deplete by 2019. In light of this fact, Ortega planned a series of reforms that mostly revolved around increased employee and employer contributions as well as an unconstitutional tax on pensions. In essence, these “reforms” raised income and payroll taxes and reduced pension benefits. Citizens, already angered by the government’s decisions in regards to previous forest fires, began protesting the reforms. Violence immediately erupted - live ammunition was used on the protestors and at least 26 people were said to have been killed. Further than that, the government tried to repress and censor the message of these protestors, only increasing the anger of the citizens. A few days after releasing the decree, President Ortega declared the cancelation of these reforms due to bad press and public unrest. Hundreds who were arrested and detained were released, and people began calling for the resignation of President Ortega.
Current Escalations and Future Concerns
Currently, further controversial actions are being taken, such as political parties being disqualified, protests being prohibited and opposition leaders being detained. Ortega has specifically targeted leading opposition candidate Christiana Chamorro, who’s mother Ortega suffered electoral defeat from in the 1990s, placing her under house arrest on charges of money laundering. This accusation is in response to the fact that she previously headed a foundation, partially funded by the USA, that trained Nicaragua’s independent journalists.
But it’s not just Christiana Chamorro whom Ortega is attacking. Between June 2 and 20, Nicaraguan authorities detained and opened politically motivated criminal investigations against five leading opposition presidential candidates and at least nine prominent government critics, showing that Ortega is willing to go to extreme lengths to remain in power. There has been failure from the opposition to unite in order to propose a candidate to oppose Ortega. His 14 year rule over Nicaragua has not yet been challenged successfully and with the November elections so close, it appears as though Ortega will once again be undefeated. Additionally, as a result of the reforms made by Ortega since he has been in power, institutions have been weakened and rules and the electoral system has become biased in his favor, maximizing the chances of his re-election for his fourth consecutive term.
Just months before the November elections, Nicaragua is turning towards authoritarianism at an alarming rate. This has inevitably created a large amount of uncertainty for the future, considering that Nicaragua’s security forces are also under Ortega’s control. As a result of the stationing of police officers near government critics’ houses, people have been unable to carry out everyday tasks such as visiting family and friends, attending work or going to their doctors appointments.
Both civil and political rights of citizens have been compromised over the past decade and a half. Over the past three years, approximately 108,000 people have fled Nicaragua with this number set to increase should major sanctions continue to drive more and more people out of their homes. The crackdowns that have taken place have caused many citizens to die and suffer injuries. According to Jose Miguel Vivanco, America’s director at Human Rights Watch, it is crucial that this issue be brought to the attention of the UN Security Council. The current reality requires an increase in international pressure in order to protect the rights of citizens.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has also expressed his concern over the issues in Nicaragua. There is a consensus that Chapter 99 of the UN Charter should be invoked in order to ensure that it is seen by the Security Council as a crisis that undermines human rights which could cause instability in Central America.
This forecasted re-election of Daniels Ortega will not only be detrimental to the Nicaraguan people and their human rights, but also to neighboring countries. The direction in which he takes the country will also prove to be a challenge to U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration, who have pledged as part of their foreign policy to strengthen democracy in Central America. In order for this situation to de-escalate and for the Nicaraguan people to regain the fundamental right of expression, it becomes increasingly clear that intervention is required.
After enduring long periods of political turmoil, dictatorship, and occupation since it became independent in 1821, Nicaragua, one of the largest countries in Central America, is once again facing a political crisis. The country faces the loss of democracy and the introduction of a one-state party system, which threatens to establish a dictatorship, leading to international concerns about the maintenance of human rights.. Although protests in Nicaragua have heightened dramatically in the past three years, these problems have been gradually developing since the oppressive regime of President Daniel Ortega began in 2007. A country rich in its diversity of people, food, and geography, Nicaragua has sadly become an epicenter of violence.
In order to better understand the current state of the nation, it is imperative to delve into President Ortega and his background. After being exiled to Cuba in 1974, Ortega was initially shown guerilla warfare under Fidel Castro’s Marxist-Leninist government. Arguably, this transformed many of his ideologies and sparked revolutionary groups whose clashes culminated in the Nicaraguan Revolution. In 1984, Ortega won the presidential election on a platform supporting mandates on issues such as: land reform, nationalization, and wealth redistribution, after being the leader in the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN). However, his presidency was overshadowed by economic and diplomatic struggles as well as largely sour relations with the United States. Following this, Ortega lost the subsequent election in 1990. Remaining fairly popular in Nicaragua, Ortega won the 2006 election and started to lead a very antidemocratic campaign. This lost him many previous allies and a cycle of violence began to upend itself. And according to political analyst Eliseo Nunez, “Nicaragua is very close to becoming a dictatorship.”
Tensions further escalated in June 2013, when a group of elderly citizens demanded a reduced pension from the Nicaraguan Social Security Institute because they were contributing smaller amounts. As the community rallied in peaceful protests, they were met with unwarranted violence and attacked by a paramilitary group. President Ortega soon supplied concessions to appease the violence. However, the following year, a Chinese funded canal was planned to be constructed through Nicaragua that would disrupt the environment and indigenous rights. This ignited protests once again.
Although there was a gradual development of discontent with governmental actions, the social security reforms in 2018 quickly escalated the troubles. The Nicaraguan Social Security Institute went into a severe deficit in 2013, but no reforms were established to rectify this issue. The International Monetary Fund alerted the Nicaraguan government that this would not be sustainable and that cash reserves would deplete by 2019. In light of this fact, Ortega planned a series of reforms that mostly revolved around increased employee and employer contributions as well as an unconstitutional tax on pensions. In essence, these “reforms” raised income and payroll taxes and reduced pension benefits. Citizens, already angered by the government’s decisions in regards to previous forest fires, began protesting the reforms. Violence immediately erupted - live ammunition was used on the protestors and at least 26 people were said to have been killed. Further than that, the government tried to repress and censor the message of these protestors, only increasing the anger of the citizens. A few days after releasing the decree, President Ortega declared the cancelation of these reforms due to bad press and public unrest. Hundreds who were arrested and detained were released, and people began calling for the resignation of President Ortega.
Current Escalations and Future Concerns
Currently, further controversial actions are being taken, such as political parties being disqualified, protests being prohibited and opposition leaders being detained. Ortega has specifically targeted leading opposition candidate Christiana Chamorro, who’s mother Ortega suffered electoral defeat from in the 1990s, placing her under house arrest on charges of money laundering. This accusation is in response to the fact that she previously headed a foundation, partially funded by the USA, that trained Nicaragua’s independent journalists.
But it’s not just Christiana Chamorro whom Ortega is attacking. Between June 2 and 20, Nicaraguan authorities detained and opened politically motivated criminal investigations against five leading opposition presidential candidates and at least nine prominent government critics, showing that Ortega is willing to go to extreme lengths to remain in power. There has been failure from the opposition to unite in order to propose a candidate to oppose Ortega. His 14 year rule over Nicaragua has not yet been challenged successfully and with the November elections so close, it appears as though Ortega will once again be undefeated. Additionally, as a result of the reforms made by Ortega since he has been in power, institutions have been weakened and rules and the electoral system has become biased in his favor, maximizing the chances of his re-election for his fourth consecutive term.
Just months before the November elections, Nicaragua is turning towards authoritarianism at an alarming rate. This has inevitably created a large amount of uncertainty for the future, considering that Nicaragua’s security forces are also under Ortega’s control. As a result of the stationing of police officers near government critics’ houses, people have been unable to carry out everyday tasks such as visiting family and friends, attending work or going to their doctors appointments.
Both civil and political rights of citizens have been compromised over the past decade and a half. Over the past three years, approximately 108,000 people have fled Nicaragua with this number set to increase should major sanctions continue to drive more and more people out of their homes. The crackdowns that have taken place have caused many citizens to die and suffer injuries. According to Jose Miguel Vivanco, America’s director at Human Rights Watch, it is crucial that this issue be brought to the attention of the UN Security Council. The current reality requires an increase in international pressure in order to protect the rights of citizens.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has also expressed his concern over the issues in Nicaragua. There is a consensus that Chapter 99 of the UN Charter should be invoked in order to ensure that it is seen by the Security Council as a crisis that undermines human rights which could cause instability in Central America.
This forecasted re-election of Daniels Ortega will not only be detrimental to the Nicaraguan people and their human rights, but also to neighboring countries. The direction in which he takes the country will also prove to be a challenge to U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration, who have pledged as part of their foreign policy to strengthen democracy in Central America. In order for this situation to de-escalate and for the Nicaraguan people to regain the fundamental right of expression, it becomes increasingly clear that intervention is required.
