By a Thread: The State of Europe's Last Dictatorship
By Nikita Guelmer and Oliver Polachini, 8/25/2020
Truly the Last Dictator?
A fixed election, an autocratic leader and a growing protest movement amidst the COVID-19 pandemic have shaped August 2020 in Minsk, Belarus. As President Aleksandr Lukashenko struggles to remain in power, the Belarusian government tries to crush opposition movements by blasting protesters with tear gas and through mass arrests and detentions. Because of Lukashenko’s conservative political mindset and his harsh attitudes towards opposition, Belarus has been called ‘Europe's Last Dictatorship’.
In 1994, the people elected Aleksandr Lukashenko in a fair election. After his ascension to the presidency, he has since remained in power. However, many experts think that the elections following 1994 have been fixed. Lukashenko’s regime has had high approval ratings until recently when the Belarusian economy faltered, and the COVID-19 response was mismanaged. Many in Belaurs, the European Union and the United States consider Lukashenko to be the last dictator in Europe. However, the Chinese government and the Kremlin contest this view.
In an attempt to remain in power, he publicly admitted to reducing his votes from 93% to 86% in 2006 to make the election seem more realistic. Belarus has banned independent polling with only government polls eligible for review (and eventual doctoring). This past election was no different, but the public outcry was more rampant.
This election saw the exile and arrests of many opposition leaders; Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had established herself as Lukashenko’s main rival for the presidency. After her husband’s imprisonment for being one of the top opposition leaders and bloggers criticizing Lukashenko’s government, she has gained much public momentum. Currently, she is at the center of some of the largest anti-government movements. Major public outcry started on Sunday, August 9. As it was announced that Lukashenko won 80% of the votes, citizens suspected that the Belarusian government doctored the numbers. As a result, the election result was met with outcry and crowds protesting. To protect his position, the president barred international observers from monitoring the elections, and chaos has erupted throughout the country, particularly in the capital of Minsk.
Lukashenko’s government has responded to public disapproval with violence in an attempt to save the president’s grip on power. Despite the fact that most of the protesters peacefully assembled to challenge the election results, they were met with the police’s aggressive use of tear gas, stun grenades, rubber bullets, and batons. The government shut down much of the internet and mobile access throughout Minsk; thousands of demonstrators were detained, and the center of Minsk was closed off. Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader, made an escape to Lithuania for security concerns. Despite mass arrests by the government, protests continue to grow. The international response was vocal, with most EU members condemning Lukashenko’s actions.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has said that the rate of arrests demonstrates a “clear violation of international human rights standards” and that “People have the right to speak up and express dissent, even more in the context of elections, when democratic freedoms should be upheld, not suppressed.” Belarus’s closest ally has historically been Russia, and Putin has publicly congratulated Lukashenko on his victory. Lukashenko has given Russia permission to assist his government, and many experts predict that Lukashenko will frame the protests as ‘foreign-backed intervention’, giving Russia the chance to intervene. This plan could potentially put Belarus back under Russian control and expand Putin’s borders and reach.
Lukashenko has been under scrutiny for years due to his regime’s human rights offenses, and now with potential backing from the Kremlin, he could retain his rule. However, most of the country is now unhappy with his policies, and public opinion has been mobilized in favor of Tikhanovskaya. The results are uncertain as is the whole essence of the situation, and it is too early to tell what will happen to Europe’s last dictatorship.
A fixed election, an autocratic leader and a growing protest movement amidst the COVID-19 pandemic have shaped August 2020 in Minsk, Belarus. As President Aleksandr Lukashenko struggles to remain in power, the Belarusian government tries to crush opposition movements by blasting protesters with tear gas and through mass arrests and detentions. Because of Lukashenko’s conservative political mindset and his harsh attitudes towards opposition, Belarus has been called ‘Europe's Last Dictatorship’.
In 1994, the people elected Aleksandr Lukashenko in a fair election. After his ascension to the presidency, he has since remained in power. However, many experts think that the elections following 1994 have been fixed. Lukashenko’s regime has had high approval ratings until recently when the Belarusian economy faltered, and the COVID-19 response was mismanaged. Many in Belaurs, the European Union and the United States consider Lukashenko to be the last dictator in Europe. However, the Chinese government and the Kremlin contest this view.
In an attempt to remain in power, he publicly admitted to reducing his votes from 93% to 86% in 2006 to make the election seem more realistic. Belarus has banned independent polling with only government polls eligible for review (and eventual doctoring). This past election was no different, but the public outcry was more rampant.
This election saw the exile and arrests of many opposition leaders; Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had established herself as Lukashenko’s main rival for the presidency. After her husband’s imprisonment for being one of the top opposition leaders and bloggers criticizing Lukashenko’s government, she has gained much public momentum. Currently, she is at the center of some of the largest anti-government movements. Major public outcry started on Sunday, August 9. As it was announced that Lukashenko won 80% of the votes, citizens suspected that the Belarusian government doctored the numbers. As a result, the election result was met with outcry and crowds protesting. To protect his position, the president barred international observers from monitoring the elections, and chaos has erupted throughout the country, particularly in the capital of Minsk.
Lukashenko’s government has responded to public disapproval with violence in an attempt to save the president’s grip on power. Despite the fact that most of the protesters peacefully assembled to challenge the election results, they were met with the police’s aggressive use of tear gas, stun grenades, rubber bullets, and batons. The government shut down much of the internet and mobile access throughout Minsk; thousands of demonstrators were detained, and the center of Minsk was closed off. Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader, made an escape to Lithuania for security concerns. Despite mass arrests by the government, protests continue to grow. The international response was vocal, with most EU members condemning Lukashenko’s actions.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has said that the rate of arrests demonstrates a “clear violation of international human rights standards” and that “People have the right to speak up and express dissent, even more in the context of elections, when democratic freedoms should be upheld, not suppressed.” Belarus’s closest ally has historically been Russia, and Putin has publicly congratulated Lukashenko on his victory. Lukashenko has given Russia permission to assist his government, and many experts predict that Lukashenko will frame the protests as ‘foreign-backed intervention’, giving Russia the chance to intervene. This plan could potentially put Belarus back under Russian control and expand Putin’s borders and reach.
Lukashenko has been under scrutiny for years due to his regime’s human rights offenses, and now with potential backing from the Kremlin, he could retain his rule. However, most of the country is now unhappy with his policies, and public opinion has been mobilized in favor of Tikhanovskaya. The results are uncertain as is the whole essence of the situation, and it is too early to tell what will happen to Europe’s last dictatorship.
Re-appropriation of Law Enforcement
“You came here so that for the first time in a quarter-century you could defend your country, your independence, your wives, sisters and children”, said the President of Belarus to thirty-one thousand pro-government protestors. Alexander Lukashenko has been president of the former Soviet Republic state since 1994. Citizens now accuse him of manipulating the election in which he has been named the victor. When the government announced the election results, many Belarusians, pro-Lukashenko and against Lukashenko, took to the streets to protest and give public demonstrations. The government’s reactions have alarmed authorities all over the world, especially when considering Lukashenko’s 26 year history.
While trying to preserve some Sovietic aspects of his government, Mr. Lukashenko is seen as an autocrat. These autocratic elements include not only a big part of manufacturing and industries belonging to the State, but also the main media channels’ glorification of the government. Even though these measures have guaranteed him support, the population has changed its views in recent years. Economic matters, including corruption by politicians and poverty spread all over the country, inciting criticism.
The situation has worsened since Mr. Lukashenko’s comments on COVID-19, suggesting vodka, saunas and hard work as ways to combat the virus. His comments provoked strong political opposition, which led to the creation of a coalition of three women as one candidate fled from Belarus and two others were arrested. This coalition’s representative, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, soon became very popular among people who sought political change. Yet, she only received 10% of the votes, against Lukashenko’s 80%. These results led to the start of the protests. On the night after the election, three thousand people were arrested in Minsk because of violent clashes, repressed by the police with rubber bullets, tear gas and grenades. Since then, other three thousand and seven hundred people present in anti-government protests have been imprisoned. While the president claims to be against any kinds of rallies, yet no people have been arrested in pro-government acts, it becomes more popular everyday for Tikhanovskaya supporters to post their police-inflicted on the internet. State company workers are also involved in strikes, and protestors have gathered at detention centers demanding proper treatment and freedom.
As the situation worsened, the Belarusian president decided to reach the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, requesting aid. After their meeting, during which they discussed “the situation in Belarus, taking into consideration the pressure the republic was being put under from outside”, Mr. Putin made clear that Russia would be ready to help Belarus “in accordance with the collective military pact if necessary.” The violent reactions by the government, both against protesters and by preparing a Russian military intervention, have led to the EU’s foreign ministers agreeing to construct new sanctions against Belarusian officials said to be involved in “violence, repression and the falsification of election results”. Later, the Baltic republics’ prime ministers also “expressed deep concern at the violent crackdown... and the political repression of the opposition by the authorities". It becomes clear that Belarus’ nationalism will not be able to keep the so-called stability (according to Lukanshenko, unlike the rest of the world, their country is protected against political and economical instability). Knowing the situation, it becomes unclear if the Revolution in Belarus will have a dynamic change and a new government - represented by Ms. Tikhanovskaya or not - or will go through a bloody revolution marked by an oppressive and violent government, now showing its true colors after decades of ‘clandestine’ oppression.
Belarusian citizens consider the police to be complicit in protecting Lukashenko’s interests. Since the protests on August 9, he ordered them to end peaceful protests with force. In the past, they never failed him. However, some officers have since traded their badge for a banner. Yegor Yemelyanov was a police officer for 17 years. After witnessing several instances of police brutality, he joined the opposition: “My conscience is clear. Police are with the people.” Many other military members and police officers are in agreement with Yemelyanov. Evgeny Novitski posted on Instagram a video of his brother, a former special forces officer, “throwing his uniform into a trash can.” Novitski’s brother is no longer proud of his service, as he gave an oath to the people and not to Lukashenko. With little backing by law enforcement, Lukashenko will struggle to retain his power, as his protectors are no longer his guardians.
“You came here so that for the first time in a quarter-century you could defend your country, your independence, your wives, sisters and children”, said the President of Belarus to thirty-one thousand pro-government protestors. Alexander Lukashenko has been president of the former Soviet Republic state since 1994. Citizens now accuse him of manipulating the election in which he has been named the victor. When the government announced the election results, many Belarusians, pro-Lukashenko and against Lukashenko, took to the streets to protest and give public demonstrations. The government’s reactions have alarmed authorities all over the world, especially when considering Lukashenko’s 26 year history.
While trying to preserve some Sovietic aspects of his government, Mr. Lukashenko is seen as an autocrat. These autocratic elements include not only a big part of manufacturing and industries belonging to the State, but also the main media channels’ glorification of the government. Even though these measures have guaranteed him support, the population has changed its views in recent years. Economic matters, including corruption by politicians and poverty spread all over the country, inciting criticism.
The situation has worsened since Mr. Lukashenko’s comments on COVID-19, suggesting vodka, saunas and hard work as ways to combat the virus. His comments provoked strong political opposition, which led to the creation of a coalition of three women as one candidate fled from Belarus and two others were arrested. This coalition’s representative, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, soon became very popular among people who sought political change. Yet, she only received 10% of the votes, against Lukashenko’s 80%. These results led to the start of the protests. On the night after the election, three thousand people were arrested in Minsk because of violent clashes, repressed by the police with rubber bullets, tear gas and grenades. Since then, other three thousand and seven hundred people present in anti-government protests have been imprisoned. While the president claims to be against any kinds of rallies, yet no people have been arrested in pro-government acts, it becomes more popular everyday for Tikhanovskaya supporters to post their police-inflicted on the internet. State company workers are also involved in strikes, and protestors have gathered at detention centers demanding proper treatment and freedom.
As the situation worsened, the Belarusian president decided to reach the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, requesting aid. After their meeting, during which they discussed “the situation in Belarus, taking into consideration the pressure the republic was being put under from outside”, Mr. Putin made clear that Russia would be ready to help Belarus “in accordance with the collective military pact if necessary.” The violent reactions by the government, both against protesters and by preparing a Russian military intervention, have led to the EU’s foreign ministers agreeing to construct new sanctions against Belarusian officials said to be involved in “violence, repression and the falsification of election results”. Later, the Baltic republics’ prime ministers also “expressed deep concern at the violent crackdown... and the political repression of the opposition by the authorities". It becomes clear that Belarus’ nationalism will not be able to keep the so-called stability (according to Lukanshenko, unlike the rest of the world, their country is protected against political and economical instability). Knowing the situation, it becomes unclear if the Revolution in Belarus will have a dynamic change and a new government - represented by Ms. Tikhanovskaya or not - or will go through a bloody revolution marked by an oppressive and violent government, now showing its true colors after decades of ‘clandestine’ oppression.
Belarusian citizens consider the police to be complicit in protecting Lukashenko’s interests. Since the protests on August 9, he ordered them to end peaceful protests with force. In the past, they never failed him. However, some officers have since traded their badge for a banner. Yegor Yemelyanov was a police officer for 17 years. After witnessing several instances of police brutality, he joined the opposition: “My conscience is clear. Police are with the people.” Many other military members and police officers are in agreement with Yemelyanov. Evgeny Novitski posted on Instagram a video of his brother, a former special forces officer, “throwing his uniform into a trash can.” Novitski’s brother is no longer proud of his service, as he gave an oath to the people and not to Lukashenko. With little backing by law enforcement, Lukashenko will struggle to retain his power, as his protectors are no longer his guardians.
