Airlines and Cruises: COVID Impact on Emissions & Industry
Nikita Guelmer and Seif Zrelli, 7/14/2020
COVID-19: An Environmental Opportunity or Curse?
The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant effects on different industrial sectors ranging from healthcare services to corporate economies. This health crisis deeply impacted daily lives, education, and social security. Some have lost jobs; others have lost businesses. Even so, COVID-19 has had a tremendous positive impact on global Greenhouse Gas emissions, due to the compulsory pause most industry and transportation had to go through. Charts and maps demonstrate the decrease in such emissions in large cities like Milan and Beijing, considerably affected by the Coronavirus. However, have countries taken this as an opportunity to change their policies to keep emissions at this record low? And how is the US addressing this unprecedented drop in CO2 emissions?
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), public policies are paramount to the mitigation of Climate Change. The UN Climate Chief urged countries to recover from this crisis through an eco-friendly and low-carbon strategy. “With this restart, a window of hope and opportunity opens… an opportunity for nations to green their recovery packages and shape the 21st-century economy in ways that are clean, green, healthy, safe and more resilient.” The most remarkable example of this transition the UN seems to be asking for is from the EU. The supra-national organization has been moving toward a more local and less globalized economy since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, in order to avoid its current dependence on imports from foreign countries and continents. This not only helps them recover from a crisis as global and impactful as the Coronavirus, but also decreases the Member States’ Carbon Footprint.
Public opinion regarding consumption and its effects on the environment seems to have been shifting towards a more ecocentric view that has led to the results of France’s last Municipal Elections, granting mayorship to members of the Green party, “Écologie-Les Verts”, in many big cities including Strasbourg, Lyon, Marseille, and even historically conservative Bordeaux. Perhaps this health crisis was perceived by many voters as a consequence of nature’s rebellion against humankind, leading them to take Climate change more seriously. Some followed their governments and leaders when they said they would keep their emissions and footprint at the containment levels, according to Réalités.
Despite this international wave of awareness and engagement with the cause of Climate Change and environmental issues, the effort seems to be mostly made by the public, not through concrete policy. The EU hasn’t brought any changes to its environmental goals and policies since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The USA is not an exception to this global trend. Despite what many researchers hypothesized, public opinion and worry about Climate Change has “not shifted”, according to the New York Times. Policies haven’t changed either. This was expected considering Donald Trump’s administration climate-skepticism and its nonchalance towards environmental issues in general. Recent laws and decisions haven’t targeted the country’s emissions, yet considerable aid has been allocated to big corporations to avoid the increase in unemployment. Such financial support offered by the US Government perpetuates the country’s corporate and capitalist history and focus. “The $2 trillion financial rescue legislation President Trump signed [...] is intended to patch the economy’s gaping wounds with urgently needed loans for companies and checks for American families.” Such legislation prevents not only more losses of jobs among US Citizens and Residents, but also a drop in emissions as big companies are more likely and capable to continue their industrial activities, imports and exports alike.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), public policies are paramount to the mitigation of Climate Change. The UN Climate Chief urged countries to recover from this crisis through an eco-friendly and low-carbon strategy. “With this restart, a window of hope and opportunity opens… an opportunity for nations to green their recovery packages and shape the 21st-century economy in ways that are clean, green, healthy, safe and more resilient.” The most remarkable example of this transition the UN seems to be asking for is from the EU. The supra-national organization has been moving toward a more local and less globalized economy since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, in order to avoid its current dependence on imports from foreign countries and continents. This not only helps them recover from a crisis as global and impactful as the Coronavirus, but also decreases the Member States’ Carbon Footprint.
Public opinion regarding consumption and its effects on the environment seems to have been shifting towards a more ecocentric view that has led to the results of France’s last Municipal Elections, granting mayorship to members of the Green party, “Écologie-Les Verts”, in many big cities including Strasbourg, Lyon, Marseille, and even historically conservative Bordeaux. Perhaps this health crisis was perceived by many voters as a consequence of nature’s rebellion against humankind, leading them to take Climate change more seriously. Some followed their governments and leaders when they said they would keep their emissions and footprint at the containment levels, according to Réalités.
Despite this international wave of awareness and engagement with the cause of Climate Change and environmental issues, the effort seems to be mostly made by the public, not through concrete policy. The EU hasn’t brought any changes to its environmental goals and policies since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The USA is not an exception to this global trend. Despite what many researchers hypothesized, public opinion and worry about Climate Change has “not shifted”, according to the New York Times. Policies haven’t changed either. This was expected considering Donald Trump’s administration climate-skepticism and its nonchalance towards environmental issues in general. Recent laws and decisions haven’t targeted the country’s emissions, yet considerable aid has been allocated to big corporations to avoid the increase in unemployment. Such financial support offered by the US Government perpetuates the country’s corporate and capitalist history and focus. “The $2 trillion financial rescue legislation President Trump signed [...] is intended to patch the economy’s gaping wounds with urgently needed loans for companies and checks for American families.” Such legislation prevents not only more losses of jobs among US Citizens and Residents, but also a drop in emissions as big companies are more likely and capable to continue their industrial activities, imports and exports alike.
Mistakes in the Travel Industry
As COVID-19 unexpectedly hit the global economy and nations enacted global quarantines, many people have found their travel plans canceled or postponed indefinitely. As is the case with most aspects of daily life, Coronavirus has affected society in numerous ways, and the long-term consequences of these changes are yet to be predicted. There is one industry that saw profits collapse like no other, and that is the travel industry. How are airlines and cruise lines to recover?
One of the biggest changes caused by COVID-19 is the closure of international borders and the numerous travel restrictions imposed by nearly 200 countries in some form. These closures have resulted in a staggering decrease in flights and ticket sales, with yearly revenues plummeting. The 2020 revenues of airlines are projected to drop by about $314 Billion, a nearly 55% drop from 2019. Many national governments have taken to distributing aid to their flagship carriers, with the U.S. Treasury Department reaching an agreement with airlines including American, Delta and United for billions of dollars in grants. In addition to the plummeting revenues for airlines worldwide, there is also a projected job loss of 100 million, with the greatest losses in Asia, with over 60 million jobs lost. It remains important to remember that many economies around the world rely on tourism as a means of income, with around 10.3% of the Global GDP dependent on tourism revenue. COVID-19 is predicted to cause a total decline of about $2.7 Trillion in Travel and Tourism GDP.
While these numbers are an estimate of the annual monetary losses to be endured by the Airline industry, we can see these changes taking place by comparing the monthly flight statistics for the first half of 2020. Just by looking at the number of commercial flights, one can see that the daily average of flights was 100,000 in January, 78,500 in March, and 29,400 in April. While the daily average of flights is slowly increasing, it remains drastically lower than it was before. The same trend can also be seen in the cruise industry, which has taken an even greater hit than airlines. For example, Carnival’s stock has plummeted by nearly 60%, and Royal Caribbean and Norwegian have lost more than 70% of their value in just 30 days. These numbers are not only hurting the cruise industry but have had a devastating effect on the Caribbean economy. The cruise industry contributes about $2 billion annually to the Caribbean, resulting in up to 5.9% of some nations’ GDP (ex: Saint Kitts and Nevis).
While the sharp decrease in flights and cruises has harmed the global economy, it has had some positive effects on the global environment. In fact, there is a historic correlation between economic crises and drops in emission, and this year’s CO₂ emissions are predicted to fall by upwards of 8% this year. The precise decrease in emissions is difficult to calculate at this time, as the extent to which flights and cruises were decreased and their correlation with emissions is yet to be determined. However, although this year’s emission cuts might be notable, they are not enough in the long term. Despite the decrease in emissions, 2020’s emissions are still higher than in any year before 2010. So while many may be disappointed that their travel plans are cancelled, this seems to be the least of global worries in the long term.
The economic effects of COVID-19 are certainly drastic, especially when looking at the increasingly interconnected global economy. More than 100 million jobs are at stake, with more than 60 million being in some of the world’s poorest regions. The Cruising industry, which is one of the main contributors to the Caribbean economy is fighting for survival and has an unknown fate, with stocks plummeting to record lows and reputations collapsing. In the long term, however, this freezing of the local economy has shown us just how catastrophic our actions are for the environment. Unless humanity rethinks our actions, our vacation destinations will be destroyed by climate change, and closed borders will no longer be the only obstacles to travel.
One of the biggest changes caused by COVID-19 is the closure of international borders and the numerous travel restrictions imposed by nearly 200 countries in some form. These closures have resulted in a staggering decrease in flights and ticket sales, with yearly revenues plummeting. The 2020 revenues of airlines are projected to drop by about $314 Billion, a nearly 55% drop from 2019. Many national governments have taken to distributing aid to their flagship carriers, with the U.S. Treasury Department reaching an agreement with airlines including American, Delta and United for billions of dollars in grants. In addition to the plummeting revenues for airlines worldwide, there is also a projected job loss of 100 million, with the greatest losses in Asia, with over 60 million jobs lost. It remains important to remember that many economies around the world rely on tourism as a means of income, with around 10.3% of the Global GDP dependent on tourism revenue. COVID-19 is predicted to cause a total decline of about $2.7 Trillion in Travel and Tourism GDP.
While these numbers are an estimate of the annual monetary losses to be endured by the Airline industry, we can see these changes taking place by comparing the monthly flight statistics for the first half of 2020. Just by looking at the number of commercial flights, one can see that the daily average of flights was 100,000 in January, 78,500 in March, and 29,400 in April. While the daily average of flights is slowly increasing, it remains drastically lower than it was before. The same trend can also be seen in the cruise industry, which has taken an even greater hit than airlines. For example, Carnival’s stock has plummeted by nearly 60%, and Royal Caribbean and Norwegian have lost more than 70% of their value in just 30 days. These numbers are not only hurting the cruise industry but have had a devastating effect on the Caribbean economy. The cruise industry contributes about $2 billion annually to the Caribbean, resulting in up to 5.9% of some nations’ GDP (ex: Saint Kitts and Nevis).
While the sharp decrease in flights and cruises has harmed the global economy, it has had some positive effects on the global environment. In fact, there is a historic correlation between economic crises and drops in emission, and this year’s CO₂ emissions are predicted to fall by upwards of 8% this year. The precise decrease in emissions is difficult to calculate at this time, as the extent to which flights and cruises were decreased and their correlation with emissions is yet to be determined. However, although this year’s emission cuts might be notable, they are not enough in the long term. Despite the decrease in emissions, 2020’s emissions are still higher than in any year before 2010. So while many may be disappointed that their travel plans are cancelled, this seems to be the least of global worries in the long term.
The economic effects of COVID-19 are certainly drastic, especially when looking at the increasingly interconnected global economy. More than 100 million jobs are at stake, with more than 60 million being in some of the world’s poorest regions. The Cruising industry, which is one of the main contributors to the Caribbean economy is fighting for survival and has an unknown fate, with stocks plummeting to record lows and reputations collapsing. In the long term, however, this freezing of the local economy has shown us just how catastrophic our actions are for the environment. Unless humanity rethinks our actions, our vacation destinations will be destroyed by climate change, and closed borders will no longer be the only obstacles to travel.
(1)
Anonymous. “Progress Made in Cutting Emissions.” Climate Action - European Commission, 16 Feb. 2017, ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/progress_en.
Ausalter, Louis. “Municipales : Des Maires Verts Poussent Partout En France.” Marianne, 29 June 2020, www.marianne.net/politique/municipales-des-maires-verts-poussent-partout-en-france.
“COVID –19 and the Low-Carbon Transition: Impacts and Possible Policy Responses.” OECD, 26 June 2020, www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/covid-19-and-the-low-carbon-transition-impacts-and-possible-policy-responses-749738fc/.
Lynch, David. “The Coronavirus Crisis Is Exposing How the Economy Was Not Strong as It Seemed.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 28 Mar. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/28/recession-economy-coronavirus/.
Schwartz, John. “Americans See Climate as a Concern, Even Amid Coronavirus Crisis.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 May 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/climate/coronavirus-climate-change-survey.html.
(2)
Evans, Simon. “Analysis: Coronavirus Set to Cause Largest Ever Annual Fall in CO2 Emissions.” Carbon Brief, 9 May 2020, 15:20, www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions.“Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Cruise Industry: Compare Key Industry Players' Actions - ResearchAndMarkets.com.”
Business Wire, 17 Apr. 2020, www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200417005169/en/Impact-COVID-19-Global-Cruise-industry-Compare-Key.Lee, Yen Nee. “5 Charts Show Which Travel Sectors Were Worst Hit by the Coronavirus.” CNBC, CNBC, 6 May 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-pandemics-impact-on-travel-tourism-in-5-charts.html.
Anonymous. “Progress Made in Cutting Emissions.” Climate Action - European Commission, 16 Feb. 2017, ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/progress_en.
Ausalter, Louis. “Municipales : Des Maires Verts Poussent Partout En France.” Marianne, 29 June 2020, www.marianne.net/politique/municipales-des-maires-verts-poussent-partout-en-france.
“COVID –19 and the Low-Carbon Transition: Impacts and Possible Policy Responses.” OECD, 26 June 2020, www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/covid-19-and-the-low-carbon-transition-impacts-and-possible-policy-responses-749738fc/.
Lynch, David. “The Coronavirus Crisis Is Exposing How the Economy Was Not Strong as It Seemed.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 28 Mar. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/28/recession-economy-coronavirus/.
Schwartz, John. “Americans See Climate as a Concern, Even Amid Coronavirus Crisis.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 May 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/climate/coronavirus-climate-change-survey.html.
(2)
Evans, Simon. “Analysis: Coronavirus Set to Cause Largest Ever Annual Fall in CO2 Emissions.” Carbon Brief, 9 May 2020, 15:20, www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions.“Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Cruise Industry: Compare Key Industry Players' Actions - ResearchAndMarkets.com.”
Business Wire, 17 Apr. 2020, www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200417005169/en/Impact-COVID-19-Global-Cruise-industry-Compare-Key.Lee, Yen Nee. “5 Charts Show Which Travel Sectors Were Worst Hit by the Coronavirus.” CNBC, CNBC, 6 May 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-pandemics-impact-on-travel-tourism-in-5-charts.html.